Lawyer Monthly Magazine - April 2019 Edition

30 BREXIT www. lawyer-monthly .com APR 2019 In the week the UK was due to leave the EU (and coming just days after the European Council agreed to delay exit date from 29 March 2019 to 22 May 2019 if the Withdrawal Agreement is approved by parliament – or until 12 April 2019, if not), the government has launched a new marketing campaign to promote the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) to secure EU nationals rights to live and work in the UK. This comes against the backdrop of EU net migration having reached its lowest level since 2009, with the latest quarterly migration statistics, published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in February 2019, revealing yet another significant drop in EU net migration to the UK. B R E X I T WHAT I S DR I V I NG THE DROP I N EU NET MI GRAT ION? FALLING EU NET MIGRATION Whilst net migration remains positive overall, net EU migration has been in steady decline since the 2016 Brexit referendum (+57,000 in the year to September 2018, in contrast to +189,000 in the year to June 2016). So why are more EU citizens deciding to leave, and fewer opting to take up job opportunities in the UK? And what does the future hold for those EU nationals who do want to remain in/migrate to the UK - and for UK employers seeking to fill vacancies? What accounts towards the changes in EU migration patterns? Inevitably, a combination of push and pull factors lie behind the statistics rather than any single cause. The most significant decline in EU migration relates to EU citizens from the Central and Eastern European countries (including Poland – the largest source country of EU nationals in the UK), where the number of migrants leaving the UK exceeds those arriving (-15,000 during the year to September 2018). Many of these member states had previously experienced higher levels of unemployment, which may have contributed to increased migration to the UK before the referendum. Subsequent improvements in those economies, including higher levels of employment and wage growth, together with the lower relative value of the pound, are likely to be contributing factors attracting EU nationals to return to, or remain in, those member states. Longer-term statistics consistently indicate a correlation between migration and economic conditions, with economic growth and demand for migrant labour being significant drivers of immigration to the UK. But currently the UK economy remains reasonably buoyant (for the time being), with the highest levels of employment since the early 1970’s - yet EU net migration continues to decrease. VOTING WITH THEIR FEET There has been no change to the free movement rights of EU nationals and their family members to live and work in the UK (and high levels of employment), therefore the figures reflect the personal choice of EU nationals: they are choosing, in greater numbers, to leave the UK/not to come to the UK. This is not a ‘reducing net migration policy’ success story; it is a reflection that the UK is seen by increasing numbers of EU nationals as a less attractive place to live, work and do business than previously. Many EU nationals have experienced a reduction of confidence about their future in the UK - in terms of their economic prospects in the UK post-Brexit (compared to other jurisdictions), uncertainty about their immigration status, concerns regarding the ‘hostile environment’ for migrants (particularly in light of Windrush) and a general feeling for some of being ‘less welcome’ in the UK. Lack of certainty has been a significant factor for EU nationals and employers alike. The government’s handling of citizens’ rights in the immediate aftermath of the referendum was woefully equivocal, creating and perpetuating uncertainty and anxiety for EU nationals and their family members already in the UK, as well as for those contemplating a move to the UK. It took almost two years for the government to set out a clear position on protecting citizen’s rights post-Brexit and its no deal proposals were not announced until December 2018 - for many this was too little too late. Despite the government’s attempts to inform organisations and the public, we continue to see unfortunate examples of confusion for employers and landlords (and others that are responsible for immigration checks under the hostile environment policies), in some cases, inadvertently discriminating against EU citizens on the incorrect assumption that they will require UK immigration permission to