The $52 Billion Question: Will the U.S. Ever Unify Its Online Gambling Laws?
The latest market projections show the United States online gambling industry on track to surge from roughly $28.7 billion in 2024 to more than $52.6 billion by 2033.
It’s a huge number and a clear sign of how quickly Americans have shifted to mobile betting, online casinos, and on-demand wagering.
But the headline growth hides a deeper, unresolved question: can an industry of this size keep operating under 50 different sets of rules, or will the U.S. eventually move toward a more unified national framework?
This analysis explores why that question matters, what the recent report didn’t explain, and what the next decade of regulation is likely to look like.
Why This Is the Big Unanswered Question
When people hear a $52 billion forecast, their immediate reaction isn’t just “big market.” It’s usually:
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Why can I bet in one state but not another?
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Who actually regulates this industry?
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How can the market scale while the rules change every few miles?
Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports-betting ban in 2018, the U.S. has embraced a state-driven system.
That’s why New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania have thriving online gambling industries, while places like Utah prohibit nearly everything.
For consumers, it means wildly inconsistent experiences.
For operators, it means duplicative licensing, mismatched tax rates, and different standards for advertising, responsible gaming, and data reporting.
For policymakers, it raises the question of whether fragmentation is sustainable as the industry matures.
This is the real unfinished business beneath the growth story.
What the Breaking News Didn’t Explain
The market report gives the revenue projections, but it doesn’t unpack the regulatory architecture shaping those projections. Among the biggest missing pieces:
1. The Full Extent of Fragmentation
Some states permit online sportsbooks only.
Some allow full online casinos and poker.
Others still ban nearly everything.
And tribal compacts create a second regulatory universe layered on top of state law.
2. The Overlapping Roles of Federal and State Authorities
States regulate sportsbooks and online casinos.
But federal law still governs payment systems, interstate data transfers, anti-money-laundering requirements, and crucially the boundary between gambling and financial event-contract trading.
This overlap has become more visible as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket test the line between “betting” and “regulated derivatives.”
3. Whether Congress Will Step In
Federal proposals such as the SAFE Bet Act point to rising interest in setting nationwide standards for advertising, affordability checks, and certain high-risk bet types.
The report doesn’t ask whether national “floor” standards are coming—yet that question will shape operator strategy and consumer protection rules over the next decade.
4. What This Means for Innovation
A fragmented regulatory landscape slows national expansion, raises compliance costs, and directly influences which products operators can bring to market.
Ultimately, the challenge is not only legal, it is fundamentally a commercial and strategic one.
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How U.S. Law Created the Patchwork
To understand why a unified rulebook is so difficult, you have to look at the legal foundation.
Gambling Has Always Been State-Led
The U.S. has a long history of letting states regulate gambling to reflect local views on risk, morality and taxation. Federal law typically intervenes only to:
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Combat organized crime (e.g., the Wire Act)
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Regulate payments and financial transfers
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Enforce consumer-protection and anti-fraud rules
States, meanwhile, control what types of gambling exist, how operators are licensed, what taxes they pay, and what responsible-gaming systems they must implement.
PASPA’s Fall Cemented That Fragmentation
When the Supreme Court invalidated the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in 2018, it didn’t create a national model.
Instead, it returned authority to the states, accelerating a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction expansion.
Some states moved fast.
Others refused to move at all.
And a few landed in the middle with limited or retail-only models.
Prediction Markets Add a New Layer of Complexity
Platforms offering event contracts political, economic or cultural, sit at the border between gambling law and federal financial regulation.
Courts and agencies are still deciding when these should be treated as sports wagers or as financial instruments.
The answer will influence:
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What products consumers can legally access
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Which regulators oversee emerging markets
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Whether national platforms can scale across state lines
It is one of the biggest unresolved structural questions in the industry.
What Independent Experts Typically Say About Problems Like This
While views vary, several themes consistently appear across academic research, legal analysis, and policy commentary:
1. A Single National Rulebook Is Politically Unlikely
Gambling intersects with state revenue, public morality and tribal sovereignty.
These are areas where Congress rarely imposes uniform laws.
Most experts see no immediate path to a sweeping federal takeover.
2. “Soft Harmonization” Is the Realistic Path
This includes:
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Model state legislation
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Voluntary industry codes (e.g., advertising standards)
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Federal “minimums” for harmful-conduct areas such as data-sharing and youth protection
This approach keeps state autonomy while reducing the most harmful inconsistencies.
3. Fragmentation Benefits Big Operators but Complicates Oversight
Large companies can afford the multiple licenses; smaller ones struggle.
At the same time, lack of uniformity can create:
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uneven consumer protections
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inconsistent enforcement
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barriers to transparent national reporting
4. Consumer-Protection Gaps Are the Weakest Link
Responsible gambling tools from self-exclusion to affordability checks, vary widely across states.
Most experts agree that the online market is expanding faster than the regulatory safety infrastructure.
What Happens Next (Forward-Looking Analysis)
Scenario 1: The Patchwork Persists, but Gradually Converges
The most probable path is slow harmonization driven by:
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States copying successful models
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Industry self-regulation
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Multi-state operators standardizing internal practices
Consumers would still see differences, but the extremes would narrow.
Scenario 2: Federal “Floor Standards” Take Hold
Congress could impose national rules on:
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Advertising volume and content
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Affordability checks
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College sports prop bets
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Data reporting across platforms
States would still decide what to legalize, but operators would face a more consistent baseline.
Scenario 3: The Prediction-Market Battle Forces Clarity
A future court ruling or agency decision could definitively label event contracts as either:
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Gambling, subject to state law, or
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Financial instruments, subject to federal market regulation
Either outcome would reshape the competitive landscape—and likely force legislative updates.
Scenario 4: A Public Crisis Triggers Rapid Reform
A high-profile scandal underage gambling, a major integrity breach, or widespread advertising violations, could trigger hearings and emergency regulation.
Historically, this is often how gambling policy advances in the U.S.
Key Stakeholders in Any Future Rulebook
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State Legislatures & Regulators – Hold most of the authority.
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Tribal Nations – Have independent gaming rights under federal law.
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Federal Agencies – DOJ (Wire Act), CFTC (event contracts), FTC/CFPB (consumer protection).
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Major Operators – DraftKings, FanDuel/Flutter, MGM, Caesars, bet365, Entain.
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Industry Groups – American Gaming Association, National Council on Problem Gambling.
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Public-Health Advocates – Focused on addiction, advertising, and affordability.
Any alignment of rules will require negotiation among all these parties.
FAQs: Understanding Online Gambling Rules in the United States
Is online gambling legal in every U.S. state?
No. Online gambling rules vary widely across the United States. Some states permit online sportsbooks, a smaller number authorize full online casino gaming and poker, others allow betting only at physical locations, and several maintain broad prohibitions. State legislatures decide what is legal within their borders.
Why is iGaming (online casino) legal in fewer states than sports betting?
Online casino gaming is considered higher risk from a responsible-gambling perspective, and many U.S. lawmakers view it as more politically sensitive than sports wagering. As a result, states have generally been quicker to authorize online sports betting than full iGaming.
Could the federal government ban online gambling again?
A broad federal ban is unlikely under current law. After the 2018 Supreme Court ruling that overturned the federal sports-betting prohibition, Congress cannot require states to keep gambling bans in place. While federal agencies can regulate operators and interstate activity, sweeping federal prohibitions would face significant constitutional and political hurdles.
What is the SAFE Bet Act?
The SAFE Bet Act is a proposed federal measure that would set nationwide standards for sports-betting advertising, require affordability and risk checks, and limit certain high-risk bet types. It would not replace state authority but would add a national consumer-protection layer on top of existing state rules.
Why do prediction markets complicate U.S. gambling regulation?
Prediction markets operate at the intersection of state gambling laws and federal financial regulation. Depending on how an event contract is structured, it may be treated as a wager (regulated by states) or as a financial instrument (overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). That overlap creates uncertainty about which rules apply.
Will the U.S. ever adopt one national set of online gambling rules?
It’s unlikely. The United States traditionally leaves gambling policy to the states, and that approach is not expected to change. What is more realistic is partial harmonization, shared advertising standards, common data requirements, and stronger responsible-gaming protections—while maintaining state-by-state control over legalization and taxation.
